With the increasing uptake of GLP-1 agonists like Ozempic and Wegovy, consumer behavior and preferences will inevitably change. This ripple effect will be felt across industries ranging from food and beverage to pharmaceuticals to consumer goods.
The impact of GLP-1 agonists on product offerings and sectors:
Based on an in-depth analysis of the rising demand for GLP-1 agonists and the correlated demographics, we forecast the following 7 changes in consumer behavior. These changes will be seen within the next 5 years.
Decrease in industries that support junk food consumption:
As GLP-1RA users become more portion-sensitive, the demand for high-calorie, low-nutrient foods will start to decline per capita. This decline in consumption per capita may not lead to a realized decline for the industry but rather act as a drag on growth. This, in turn, will affect the packaging, logistics, supply chain, and other support industries for the junk food industry.
Decrease in goods supporting sedentary lifestyles:
Products that support and are supported by inactivity will see reduced growth. These could include gaming, in-home gadgets, and really comfortable furniture.
Decrease in products negatively affecting physical and mental health:
Items detrimental to well-being, such as alcohol and tobacco, might become less popular as the determination used to reduce food intake can be redirected elsewhere.
Increased growth in industries supporting healthy foods:
The demand for nutritious, whole foods will rise per capita, and the industries supporting the creation, sale, and use of these products are to benefit from this growth. Products like blenders, juicers, and air-fryers that enable healthy cooking could feel the benefits.
Increase in sales for goods supporting active lifestyles:
Sales of fitness equipment, sportswear, and related products will increase per capita. As each brand in this space looks at the potential effects of these drugs, they will need to consider clothes sizing to meet new body shapes.
We also anticipate a nearer-term growing market for plus-size athleisure as GLP-1RA users turn to physical exercise to boost their health alongside any weight loss. This potential growth in the fitness industry could inspire hope for a more active and healthy future.
A tailwind for the cosmetics and beauty industry:
Skincare products and treatments that support firmness, face contouring, and body sculpting will see growth from the increasing number of GLP-1 users who are losing weight and find that their skin needs support during the weight loss transition and thereafter.
A boost in products promoting physical and mental health:
Nutraceuticals, vitamins, and other items designed to enhance well-being could see a surge in popularity, where GLP-1RA users’ reduction in food causes concern for vitamin and mineral intake. This potential surge in popularity for products promoting physical and mental health could inspire a positive outlook on the potential benefits of GLP-1RA.
The data behind these predictions:
As we explore the broader impact of GLP-1 agonists and the ripple effects in consumer profiles, it’s key to understand today’s landscape and the changes we’ve been seeing in the past few years and months.
A rising demand for GLP-1 agonist prescriptions
Prescriptions for these medical interventions are still accelerating. Analysis of anonymized electronic health record data released by Truveta showed a 20.9% growth in prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs in Q1 2024.
Data from Google Trends also show growing awareness and interest in the leading GLP-1RA drug, Ozempic. The data shows that the Ozempic search volume has increased from 2019 to 2024 (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Relative weekly search frequency for the term ‘Ozempic’ using the Google Search Engine. The figure shows a significant increase in the volume of searches for “Ozempic” in the United States from July 2019 to July 2024, peaking around mid-2023. It indicates growing public interest and awareness over time. (Source)
Further exploring the data, Figure 2 shows the regions of the USA with the highest volume of searches for Ozempic over the last five years and in the last quarter. The trend has shifted to the northeast and southwest of the country.
Figure 2: The figure illustrates the relative search popularity of “Ozempic” by state in the United States, comparing data from the last five years (left) with data from the last 90 days (right). (Source)
The continued growth in uptake of GLP-1 agonists is uncertain. This is due to the required injection, costs, and side effects as potential barriers to growth.
Modeling of the market size and penetration of these drugs varies widely, with estimates of 15 – 70 million patients by 2028 in different scenarios. Truveta’s data showed that for their subset of the population, 85% of prescriptions were for diabetes mellitus and only 15% for obesity.
Despite the modest prescription numbers currently reported (~1.4% of the population), Walmart’s analysis showed a downturn in total food purchasing correlated to the rise in GLP-1RA. These interventions are relatively new, and trials are ongoing for new indicators of obesity-related diseases.
If FDA-approved and covered by Medicare insurance, we will likely see a surge in prescriptions within the US. Our previous report provided a more detailed analysis of the continued growth trend in their uptake.
Impact on healthcare
An increased uptake of GLP-1 agonists will undoubtedly affect the healthcare industry. These drugs can reduce obesity-related medical diseases, leading to fewer interventions. While this represents a tremendous social good, it also poses risks to the business structures of modern pharmaceutical companies.
This is because these companies would need to adapt to this new landscape. Their leaders are currently grappling with these changes, balancing the promise of improved public health with potential shifts in revenue models.
Impact on food & beverage
In the food & beverage industry, the increasing use of GLP-1 agonists like Semaglutide could lead to a shift in consumer preferences. As these drugs make weight loss easier, consumers may start to prefer healthier food options.
This shift drives demand for products that promote sustainable weight and obesity management. Such changes in consumer behavior could present both challenges and opportunities for businesses in the food & beverage industry.
Adapting to these market shifts, Nestlé is launching Vital Pursuit, a new line of frozen food products specifically for consumers on weight loss medications like Ozempic and Wegovy. This initiative addresses the growing need for food options that support dietary changes influenced by GLP-1 agonists.
Impact on consumer goods
These medications, primarily known for their efficacy in weight management, could have far-reaching consequences that could reshape consumer behavior across industries.
This potential change in consumer profile for many American consumers should be assessed as a business risk and opportunity for businesses across different industries, including the CPG industry.
Here, we document some areas where these drugs may act as catalysts for permanent lifestyle changes and what that might mean for consumer goods industry leaders.
Positive feedback loops: One good thing leads to another
Research into dieting and positive feedback loops has traditionally focused on the challenges dieters face in breaking the cycle of weight gain. Indeed, a 2022 study found that after stopping a regimen of Semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic, patients regained 2/3rds of the weight loss within one year. This suggests users must be supported to make lifestyle changes.
Conversely, these drugs have been found to have synergistic effects with exercise, providing better outcomes than each intervention alone. This combination of exercise and GLP-1 agonists was seen to help patients maintain weight loss after stopping the drug intervention.
We could hypothesize that maintaining the exercise could lead to a virtuous cycle of positive feelings and behaviors. These feelings of agency and external validation reinforce and promote a series of healthy behaviors.
In the most optimistic scenario, the use of GLP-1 agonists could lead to what we call “virtue spirals.” In these spirals, weight loss could lead to:
- Increased physical activity
- Healthier food choices
- Sustained weight management
This positive feedback loop could influence more than just diet and exercise. It promotes better decision-making and increased agency in other areas of life. As a result, industries that rely on unhealthy habits, such as tobacco and alcohol, could see a decline in demand.
GLP-1 agonist user demographics
Studies have broken down the larger statistics to identify the sections of society that are taking GLP-1 agonists. A survey of 100,000 people by Numerator claims to have found that 47% of GLP-1 users take the drug for weight loss. 74% of these individuals aim to shed more than 15 pounds. Additionally, 63% use it for diabetes, and 14% use it for both purposes.
Overall, GLP-1 users are mostly Gen X, African American, or Hispanic and have lower incomes than non-users. However, those using it for weight loss are generally younger and have higher incomes, while those using it for diabetes tend to have lower incomes.
Figure 3: The figure shows the gender distribution of GLP-1 agonist users by age group in 2023, comparing adolescents (12-17 years) with young adults (18-25 years).
A study from the University of Michigan Medical School in Ann Arbor examined US data between 2020 and 2023. It revealed that prescriptions for young people went up by over 600%, and young women were 200% more likely to be taking GLP-1 agonists than young men. For comparison, at a peak of GLP-1 dispensing in early 2023, young women (18-25 years old) were given 45,000 doses compared to less than 15,000 doses to young men (18-25 years old).
Therefore, brands that appeal to young female customers, such as beauty and cosmetics, could be the first consumer goods brands to see an impact from any change in behavior.
Industry impact: Suggested winners and losers
The following table summarizes our predictions of the future impact of GLP-1 on various industries.
PreScouter’s strategic recommendations:
As leaders in scientific research and consulting, PreScouter helps its clients see the big picture and how trends can impact their businesses.
As these drugs become more prevalent, companies across sectors must anticipate and adapt to the evolving consumer preferences of this growing demographic of ‘previously overweight and obese.’ By embracing this shift, businesses can survive and thrive in a landscape increasingly defined by health-conscious consumers.
PreScouter recommends the following strategies:
- Governance: Introducing this trend as a risk or opportunity within your business’s strategy discussions.
- Monitoring: Continue to monitor the growth of the GLP-1RA user demographic. Also, conduct market research to understand the breakdown of weight loss demographic.
- Innovation and R&D: Invest in innovation to design products that capitalize on the growth in this demographic.
- Market positioning: Supporting users on their weight loss journey will enhance brand loyalty and open new revenue streams.
- Early indicators: Any impact in the consumer goods industry may lag compared to the food and beverage or healthcare sectors. Watch for movement in these sectors to determine whether you should accelerate your risk management plans.
The PreScouter team can help your organization with its research and consultancy needs, bridging the gap between new developments and practical implementation strategies. This guidance will enable you to capitalize on the potential benefits of a growing weight loss market.
